US CPI, PPI, retail sales and jobless claims could sway Bitcoin’s price this week. Here’s they might affect the crypto markets.
Bitcoin lately climbed back above $120,000, now around $119k. However, whether it stays there depends on several upcoming US economic indicators.
Major reports are due this week, and traders in both trad-fi markets and crypto are watching. Each data release could sway Federal Reserve policy expectations, the US dollar and even Bitcoin’s price.
CPI Report Could Set the Tone for Markets
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the most important number this week. It measures inflation and is due on Tuesday, August 12. Economists expect July’s CPI to show a 2.8% rise from a year earlier, which is slightly higher than June’s 2.7%.
🚨BREAKING: US CPI numbers are out!
US CPI year over year: 2.7% (exp 2.8%, prev 2.7%)
US Core CPI year over year: 3.1% (exp 3.1%, prev 2.9%) pic.twitter.com/st3BhNjyUl
— Coin Bureau (@coinbureau) August 12, 2025
This uptick is partly linked to tariffs introduced on August 7. If the CPI comes in hotter than expected, the US dollar could gain strength and put downward pressure on Bitcoin.
A weaker-than-expected reading, below 2.7%, on the other hand, could have the opposite effect and trigger a crypto rally.
Analysts believe that the markets are already pricing in a September interest rate cut, with odds around 91%. A softer CPI would strengthen this expectation, while a higher figure might reduce the chances.
The results of the CPI are out, and show the US’ CPI year over year at 2.7%, which is the same as the previous reading, and less than analyst expectations of 2.8%.
The US Core CPI year-over-year readings, on the other hand, aligned with analyst expectations at 3.1%, and are higher than the previous reading at 2.9%.
PPI to Offer More Inflation Clues
The Producer Price Index (PPI), on the other hand, is due Thursday. This metric is another important US economic indicator, because it tracks the prices that producers receive for goods and services. It is also considered one of the most important gauges of inflation trends.
Macro Week Ahead 🗓️
Big inflation week in the US:
• Wed – Core CPI YoY (Jul) 🔼 3.0% est. (prev. 2.9%)
• Wed – CPI YoY (Jul) 🔼 2.8% est. (prev. 2.7%)
• Fri – Core PPI YoY (Jul) 🔼 2.9% est. (prev. 2.6%)
• Fri – Jobless Claims (Aug/09) ➡️ 226k est. (prev. 226k) pic.twitter.com/QswSS8K5qb— Macro Vector (@Macrovector_) August 11, 2025
Economists now predict an increase from June’s 2.3% figure, where a higher PPI reading would add to worries that inflation remains sticky. This could discourage the Fed from cutting rates soon, and if that happens, it could limit liquidity in the market and weigh down on Bitcoin.
Retail Sales to Test Consumer Strength
On Friday, the US Census Bureau will release retail sales figures for July. This measure of consumer spending accounts for about 70% of the US economy. Economists expect growth of 0.5%, which is down slightly from June’s 0.6%.
A reading above expectations would indicate that he economy is strong and could even push bond yields and the dollar higher, which can be negative for Bitcoin in the short term.
If sales come in weaker, it might increase the case for rate cuts, which could support risk assets like crypto.
Jobless Claims And LLabourMarket Trends
Weekly initial jobless claims measure how many people apply for unemployment benefits for the first time. The latest figure, which came in for the week ending August 2, was 226,000.
Initial jobless claims have been stabilizing over the last few weeks.
Less so for the insured UR rate. pic.twitter.com/buXJu9Tsez
— Eric Basmajian (@EPBResearch) August 7, 2025
In terms of predictions, economists expect a slight rise to 229,000 this week.
In essence, a stable or gradually rising number could indicate that the labour market is cooling, and could increase the chances of rate cuts. That could support Bitcoin’s upward moves. However, a big jump in claims might raise fears of a recession, which can lead to risk-off sentiment.
Bitcoin’s Position Amid Market Uncertainty
Overall, Bitcoin’s recent move above $120,000 comes as institutional and retail investors alike continue to watch out for US economic developments.
Since the CPI data is already out, the PPI is the next to watch on Thursday, while retail sales and jobless claims come out on Friday.
In all, Bitcoin’s short-term direction will likely depend on whether the data points to cooling inflation and slowing growth, or stronger-than-expected economic strength.