Key Insights:
Analysts are predicting an “altcoin season” in July, alongside a 37% drop in Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) from its current level above 65%.
Historically, altcoin seasons are triggered when BTC.D declines..
A confirmed drop in BTC.D to 42-45% would be the ultimate signal for the start of an altcoin rally.
A major change could be incoming for the crypto market, and it’s one that altcoin investors are eagerly anticipating.
Bitcoin dominance, or the metric that measures Bitcoin’s share of the overall crypto market, is currently sitting above 65%. Historically, when this number falls, it tends to mark the start of an “altcoin season,” where altcoins outperform Bitcoin in price growth and market attention.
As it stands, analysts are now predicting that Bitcoin dominance could drop by as much as 37% in the coming months. If this plays out, it could be the start of Altseason 2025, or the next big chapter for altcoins.
Understanding Bitcoin Dominance and Why It Matters
Before jumping into the prediction, it’s important to understand what Bitcoin dominance is and why it’s so well studied. Bitcoin dominance (or BTC.D) is the percentage of the total crypto market cap that is held by Bitcoin.
A high dominance indicates that Bitcoin is outperforming the rest of the market. And when dominance drops, it often means that capital is rotating into altcoins.
Historically, each altcoin season has been triggered by a drop in Bitcoin’s dominance. For example, in 2017, BTC.D fell by over 50%. This happened again in 2021, when it dropped by more than 45%.
Both instances gave way to massive rallies in altcoins like Ethereum, Solana and Cardano. Today, BTC.D is pressing up again against a long-term resistance level, and analysts believe we may be on the verge of another breakdown.
The Resistance Trendline
According to analyst CoreCrypto in a recent update, Bitcoin dominance has been respecting a descending resistance trendline that stretches back to 2017. Every time BTC.D hits this line, it struggles to break higher and then crashes, giving altcoins room to shine.
Right now, BTC.D is hovering above 65%, and CoreCrypto says this could be the inflection point the altcoins need. The current climb in dominance has brought Bitcoin back to that historical resistance zone and if it fails to break through, history may repeat itself.
CoreCrypto pointed to past cycles where this resistance acted as the trigger for a shift in market momentum. “If BTC.D gets rejected from this resistance again, it could mark the start of the long-awaited Altseason,” the analyst said.
Ethereum Is The Bellwether
Another signal that CoreCrypto is watching is the performance of Ethereum relative to Bitcoin.
Historically, when Ethereum starts to outperform Bitcoin, it often means that altcoin investors are becoming more confident. Ethereum’s strength in recent weeks, especially in the ETF market, could be setting the stage for this rotation.
As Bitcoin’s price begins to consolidate or move sideways, Ethereum and other altcoins tend to gain ground. This pattern has played out in previous cycles and could be repeating now.
Breaking Support Could Confirm the Shift
In addition to the resistance trendline, Analyst Javon Marks pointed towards a major support level on the dominance chart. This said, if BTC.D falls below this support line which has held up in past cycles, it could confirm that the market is entering a new phase.
Altcoins continue to have Bullish Divergences confirm and all this is showing, from a data standpoint, is that a HUGE BULLISH REVERSAL is in the works.
These alts can turn significantly upwards in ANY MOMENT NOW!$OTHERS.D https://t.co/CNsqsxiPZP pic.twitter.com/c5uiVHFK0d
— JAVON⚡️MARKS (@JavonTM1) July 1, 2025
The analyst predicts that if this breakdown occurs, BTC.D could fall as low as 42% to 45%.
This stands as a 36.91% decline from current levels. While such a decline would be slightly less dramatic than previous cycles, it would still result in billions of dollars rotating from Bitcoin into altcoins.
Overall, while nothing is guaranteed in crypto, the ingredients for an altcoin season are starting to come together. Bitcoin’s dominance is pushing against a multi-year resistance, and Ethereum is gaining strength.
If CoreCrypto’s prediction of a 37% drop in Bitcoin dominance plays out, it may just open the floodgates for the long-awaited altcoin season at any moment.