Bitcoin has fallen by more than 8% since January 7th, falling below US$10,000 due to concerns over sticky inflation, global economic uncertainty and potential impacts of Trump’s policy. Bitmex founder Arthur Hayes predicted a market peak and crash around March, suggesting investors should wait for improved conditions in the third quarter. Fidelity analyst Matt Hogan remains bullish, suggesting that the nation could secretly accumulate Bitcoin for its strategic reserves.
Prices for Bitcoin and other major digital assets have continued to decline for three consecutive days. The sale began on Tuesday, when the biggest cryptocurrency fell figically off the cliff, falling below the US$10,000 mark and has continued to be a downtrend ever since.
On January 7th, prices fell the most sharply from noon that day, but now it has fallen by more than 8%, and is currently trading at USD 92,823 ($149,671).
Inflation, Trump and Haze
So, what caused the crash? Perhaps it’s sticky inflation (read the latest Fed here) and worry combined with the overall dark economic outlook and uncertainty about global events.
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He also said that his policies could have a negative impact on the economy, with the exception of the procrypt policy the industry wants, which could lead to short-lived due to increased spending and borrowing. I’m also worried.
Elon Musk also raised some eyebrows over the comments that it would have a negative flow-on effect on crypto prices, as his Doge division could be very good at the job.
In addition to concerns, Arthur Hayes, founder of Bitmex and Maelstrom, has returned with his own predictions. Hayes believes he will see the market peak and crash around March.
It’s time to sell on schedule, almost every other year, in the second half of the first quarter (…) and wait for positive Fiat liquidity conditions to reappear in the third quarter.
Arthur Hayes Despite the set-up, financial analysts remain bullish as institutional adoption gains momentum.
Can institutional adoptions tilt counter trends?
This is the first birthday of the Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETF) spot, and the government is slowly but surely beginning to debate about adding “digital gold” to the national reserves, and tokenized it is progressing beyond what is not just a buzzword.
Fidelity Digital Assets Research analyst Matt Hogan recently reiterated how important the national strategic reserve story can be.
In a January 7 paper titled “I Want to See 2025,” Hogan said in his biggest code that “more nation states, central banks, sovereign funds, and government finance ministries establish strategic positions I hope that it will happen.”
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Hogan added that not having Bitcoin proved to be more risky than having at least some exposure.
Whether the US starts with a Bitcoin Reserve and others will continue openly, that could become even more of a problem.
Nation-states can begin to accumulate in secret. There is no incentive to announce these plans. This will impact more buyers and increase prices.
Matt Hogan