Whale deposits and flat Funding Rates reveal a fragile structure behind RAY’s post-Upbit rally.
However, Raydium’s pump may lack sustainability.
Raydium [RAY] soared by over 25% following its listing on South Korea’s Upbit exchange, attracting intense retail interest and heightened volatility.
At press time, RAY traded at $2.24, briefly hitting $2.30 during the surge. However, a key red flag emerged.
A whale deposited 906,788 RAY worth $2.26 million into Binance shortly after the pump, hinting at potential distribution.
On-chain and sentiment data now paint a fragile picture. Momentum may be fading faster than it appeared.
THIS is not what the bulls wanted to see!
Funding Rates have remained nearly flat at +0.01% across derivatives markets despite RAY’s sharp upward move. Normally, such price action attracts aggressive longs and inflates rates.
Normally, parabolic pumps attract high-leverage longs and inflated Funding Rates.
But here, the stagnation suggests leveraged traders stayed cautious — unwilling to bet on follow-through.
Besides, if funding turns negative again, it could suggest bears are beginning to regain control. For now, the flat rates signal indecision rather than support for sustained bullish pressure.
Source: Santiment
Social metrics hit multi-week highs
RAY’s Social Dominance hit 0.458%, and Social Volume climbed to 22 mentions, marking multi-week highs.
This reflected an influx of retail interest driven by the high-profile listing. However, hype-driven rallies often lack staying power, if not reinforced by fundamentals.
Crowd interest alone may push prices briefly higher, but it usually fades unless followed by strong network growth.
Therefore, the sustainability of the pump depends on whether this attention can convert into actual long-term holder engagement.
Source: Santiment
Are RAY short-term holders already exiting?
And while the buzz grew louder, something else quietly shifted because holders started exiting.
The MVRV Long/Short Difference dropped to -30.84%, flipping from green to deep red at press time. This sharp drop indicated that most short-term holders were no longer in profit.
As a result, the likelihood of immediate sell pressure diminishes, since fewer traders are incentivized to cash out. However, this also means momentum traders have likely exited, potentially weakening short-term volume.
Source: Santiment
Can RAY stay above support as bullish structure weakens?
RAY hovered near $2.24 after rebounding from the $1.90–$2.10 Demand Zone—a range that previously sparked bullish recoveries. But this time, the follow-through feels less certain.
Momentum indicators still leaned positive, giving buyers a technical edge. However, if bulls fail to build on the bounce, price could slide below $2.00, flipping old support into resistance.
On top of that, rising sell pressure or thinning interest could quickly erode this setup. The $2.10 mark now stands as a line in the sand.
Holding it may be the only way to keep hopes of reclaiming the $3.40 April high alive.
Source: Trading View
Price up, but user growth? Missing
Price-to-DAA divergence has plunged to -51.7%, showing a major disconnection between price action and network activity. When price growth far outpaces New Address creation, the risk of a reversal increases.
This suggests RAY’s recent move may be speculative rather than adoption-driven. In past cycles, similar divergence levels preceded cooling phases or reversals.
Therefore, without a corresponding rise in user activity, the rally risks losing credibility and triggering a return to previous support levels.
Source: Santiment
Conclusively, RAY’s 25% rally, fueled by its Upbit listing, has attracted strong interest, but multiple indicators suggest caution.
Whale deposits, weak funding, and poor address activity signal underlying fragility. Unless real demand and network traction kick in, RAY could cool off just as quickly as it pumped.