Key Takeaways
As long as Toncoin holds above its bullish structure, higher levels could be reclaimed. Its TVL has been dropping over the past year, but it corresponded with the on-chain activated wallets rising.
Toncoin (TON), over the last 24 hours, climbed up by only 1.77% on the charts. This, on the back of its downtrend over the past one year. In fact, the $6.80-level has remained its highest level over this period.
And yet, the altcoin is continuing to make moves as institutions dive into it. The latest example of the same is the TON Foundation’s partnership with Kingsway Capital. They will be launching a $400M Toncoin treasury company soon. Needless to say, this could fuel the altcoin’s struggling price on the charts.
TON testing key levels
Over the last two months, Toncoin has been bouncing between the $2.60 and $3.70 price levels. The price dropped from $3.7 towards the end of May to the low of the range, a month later – A major turning point.
TON’s price broke above the $3-level and surged to almost $3.6 on the charts. However, it has since retraced. At the time of writing, the altcoin’s price had already rejected the $3- level once. However, it is still unclear if this will hold.
Source: TradingView
Now that the $400M treasury for TON is coming, a hold above the aforementioned support level could fuel a rally of about 21%. This will set the crypto’s target at $3.70.
Alternatively, a breach and a hold back into the consolidation zone could pull the altcoin down even further.
Analysis of chain activity
With the total supply of TON standing at 5.135 billion and fees dropping, it could imply that the use of token has greatly reduced. For instance – Average on-chain wallet activations per day dropped by almost 50% in 10 days.
At the time of writing, these wallets were down to 19,366 from 35,392. On the other hand, the total accounts and overall activated wallets seemed to be hitting new peaks.
Source: TonStat
There were some positives though. Especially since assets and valuables with NFTs and DNS trading volumes climbed to 23.37M and 7M TON, respectively.
These metrics can be expected to rise now that TON’s wallet has officially launched for the U.S market.
What’s more on the DeFi front?
For TON’s DeFi ecosystem, the scenario might be a blend of both optimism and caution. The staked TON stood at 791M while the stablecoin market cap rose by 7.85% over the last seven days.
The Total Value Locked (TVL) has dropped by more than 2.5x over the past one year. This discrepancy can be highlighted by the fact that back in July 2024, the TVL was $1.1 billion. Right now, figures for the same are closer to $408M.
Source: DefiLlama
The last three days maintained the average 24h DEX volume at about $9M from this week’s high of $15M. Among protocols on TON network, TONCO led by fees paid (roughly $17,432) – More than the combined value of STON.fi, Storm Trade and DeDust.
All these metrics together mean TON’s price is at a crossroads right now. Hence, there is no certainty that it will meet its price target and hike by 21%.