Bloomberg highlights October 18 as key date for SEC decisions.
XRP ETF approval odds jump to 93%, per Polymarket forecast.
The chances of approval for spot ETFs based on cryptocurrencies like XRP, Dogecoin, and Cardano have significantly increased. According to Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, there is now a 90% or higher likelihood that these ETFs will be approved. The move follows the heightened activity of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that analysts consider to be a positive development.
ETF Analysts Eye October 18 as Key SEC Decision Date
The likelihood of getting these ETFs approved was reduced in the recent past. The chances were below 90 percent just two weeks ago, according to the analysts. But then new developments have prompted them to change this forecast. XRP, Dogecoin, and Cardano are now part of the list of altcoins that have a good probability of being listed as an ETF, along with Litecoin, Solana, Polkadot, and Avalanche.
Notably, there is doubt about when this approval will happen. Although the promise is better than it has ever been, it is possible that there will still be time consumed before such products are actually launched. Seyffart thinks approvals might be available as late as in late June or early July. True, he also noted that the time of realization is closer, that is, the fourth quarter of 2025. He said that one date to look out for is October 18 according to the schedule of one of the regulating bodies.
The 19b-4s concerning the said ETF applications are already being acknowledged by the SEC. This is a big move since it indicates that the regulator is taking the proposals seriously. Analysts believe the SEC should treat these cryptocurrencies as commodities. As a result, the approval process could move faster. Many tokens already trade in regulated futures markets under the CFTC. Moreover, it signals that regulators may view these assets more like commodities than securities, which simplifies compliance.
XRP ETF Approval Odds Surge to 93%, Says Polymarket
Currently, Bitcoin and Ethereum have been taking the ETF by storm. Such finances have already received billions as investments. Today, there is a potential penetration of XRP, Dogecoin, and Cardano in the same sphere that may promote a greater number of competitors and further diversity among the investors. These ETFs have no such requirement to directly possess digital assets, which is attractive to some investors (particularly those who are cautious of security risks).
According to market predictions from Polymarket, the chance of XRP-based ETFs being approved by the end of 2025 has risen to 93%. This is a 23% increase in several months. It is an indication of improved confidence among market participants as well as analysts.
Investors are hopeful of the most recent update because they have been waiting patiently to get regulatory clarity. This development implies that the issue now is when, rather than whether, it will be approved. According to analysts, the tide is turning in favor of these altcoin ETFs.
Altogether, the increased chances of acceptance are an indication of burgeoning changes in the perception of cryptocurrencies by regulators, as well as by financial markets. In case of approval, these ETFs would change the game for an investment in digital assets and launch the new track towards extensive integration into the traditional financial system.