Whale-to-exchange transfers drop to zero.
CMF and MACD show bullish momentum.
Price could retest $3.40 or fall to $1.54 if demand fades.
XRP has spent most of the second quarter stuck below the $3.00 threshold, failing to register a meaningful breakout despite multiple attempts.
At the time of writing, the cryptocurrency is trading at $2.17, down by 0.32% in the last 24 hours.
The price level marks a continuation of the range-bound movement XRP has hovered around since mid-April.
The prolonged consolidation comes as broader market volatility eases and investors await catalysts that could define price action in the third quarter.
Technical and on-chain indicators, however, suggest that XRP may be on the verge of a trend reversal.
With key metrics such as the MVRV Z-score signalling undervaluation, and whale sell-offs slowing to a standstill, market dynamics appear to be shifting.
If these developments persist, XRP could break its sideways trend and move towards retesting its previous highs from January.
Undervalued status based on MVRV Z-score
XRP’s current Market Value to Realised Value (MVRV) Z-score is at 2.13.
Historically, XRP has reached overbought levels when this metric moves between 3.45 and 6.72.
In January, for example, the Z-score stood at 6.65 when the token hit $3.25, followed by a price rejection and eventual correction.
Similarly, a failed recovery attempt in March also coincided with a relatively high Z-score.
These instances contributed to the token’s recent consolidation.
However, the current reading suggests XRP remains undervalued based on market conditions, and that the downward pressure from previous overvaluation periods may be easing.
If accumulation begins to build, a new rally could follow.
Whale activity hits zero as selling pauses
Large-scale holders, often referred to as whales, have historically played a major role in XRP’s price movements.
According to recent data from CryptoQuant, Whale-to-Exchange Transactions have dropped to zero.
Just two days earlier, there were 2,716 such transactions, indicating active selling pressure.
The drop to zero suggests that whales are no longer moving their holdings to exchanges, likely opting to hold instead of liquidating.
This pause in sell-offs could help stabilise XRP around the $2.17 level and position the cryptocurrency for potential upside.
Some of the sentiment shift may be attributed to macroeconomic expectations, particularly around monetary policy.
With speculation growing that the Federal Reserve may introduce interest rate cuts between July and September, investors are reassessing their exposure to risk assets.
If borrowing costs decrease, capital could flow back into the crypto market, including XRP.
Technical indicators support bullish setup
The daily price chart presents several technical signals that align with the bullish on-chain data.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), an indicator of buying and selling pressure, has crossed above the zero line and is now approaching the upper boundary of a falling wedge pattern.
A breakout from this structure could confirm the beginning of a new uptrend.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has also flipped bullish, showing a crossover that supports upward momentum.
If this trend holds, XRP may surpass the resistance at $2.25 and move towards $2.69, which corresponds to the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level.
Beyond that, if sustained volume supports the rally, XRP could attempt a retest of its January peak at $3.40 before the end of the next quarter. Should momentum continue, a new all-time high may be within reach.
However, a reversal remains possible if whale activity resumes or broader market demand softens.
In such a case, XRP could decline to the $1.54 level, aligned with the 0.618 Fibonacci support.
